Monday, December 1, 2008

Nov 11 to Dec 1

Been a while since I updated my blog, I have to give credit to those who keep an updated blog coz it is a commitment.

Nothing too much to mention except for two worthy trades. One of them was a swing trade on FBN. I shorted this one on 13/Nov at $4.46 for a thousand shares near the close, I think the market was up that day. I could not have timeed it any better, coz from then on it just dropped.

I think I am better off not watching a position consistently coz I tend to react/get emotional when the price action goes against me. This is what I ended up doing on 18/Nov. The price action went against me and I panicked and quickly covered my position at $3.54. A nice little profit for 5 days that brought my account back to my original investment but a little patience and it went as low as 2 something.

The last worthy trade was MET on Nov 18, where Muddy in GOTS mentioned it starting to tank and I shorted 1k shares at $20 and at an average of $19.25 for a nice profit the same day.

But unfortunately did a bunch of silly trades here and there and over the next few days not even worth mentioning.

I have been on holiday since 18 Nov in cowboy country (Texas) and trying to trade a little here and there but no real time coz the family wants to do all the touristy stuff (not that there is a lot of touristy things to do in Texas).

Wish I could had the opportunity to trade today coz after 5 updays I felt the knock down coming. Oh well, I am sure there will be more opportunities. I will be watching COF, coz this one climbed way too high in the past few days, I think its more short covering than anything else. Credit card companies should soon start having some serious write downs.

Anyways, that's the update so far.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Nov 5,6,7,10 & 11

Been a while since I updated my blog, very frustrating last few days, so here goes.

Nov 5 - So just one trade on the day short 500 PWR 16.54 and covered at 16.29, 2 mins scalp for $125. Nothing great but better than seeing red.

Nov 6 - 4 trades on the day, and I call that overtrading for a person like me who only wants to scalp.
- short 200 TEL 17.60, covered at 17.09 $100 bucks in 6 mins, pretty good for 200 shares.
- short 500 TEVA 39.88, covered at 40.10 $110 loss in 3 mins (see quick scalps go wrong too)
- short 1000 CNQ 45.70, covered at 46.40 $700 loss in 22 mins, now that really hurt, waaayy too long in the trade 'hoping' rather than 'accepting'. It reminded me of the bad times. Its times like these where you have to step back and do a self assessment. Experience should be in play here too, coz for some reason I hold on to the darn mouse instead of hitting 'confirm' and accepting the loss. Huge lesson to be learnt here coz this was when your upset and tend to make more silly moves.
- Desperate to recover the loss and my profit from last month I selected a volatile one POT. Shorted 300 at 78.52 covered at 79.26 for a further loss on the day for $ 222 in 4 mins.
By this time I was letting my emotions get the best of me so I stopped trading.

Nov 7 - Even though I stopped myself from further trades on Nov 6, it was still heavy on my mind and was very bad way to start the new day. So what do you think I did,
- shorted 500 QCOM 34.28, covered at 34.93 for a loss of $325 in 9 mins, again too damn long and 'hoping' and not 'accepting. I am going to put a huge board up that says 'ACCEPT IT' and clock next to it too.
- shorted 1000 FLR 41.93, covered at 41.85 for a quick $80. Now this was a very risky play coz the stock opened up almost 8-9 bucks and I actually shorted it a good point but instead of taking the quick money that came ($41.24) in about 15 mins, I hung on and ended up getting out with $80. lesson learnt DON'T BE GREEDY.
That was it for the week. I was so upset, coz I not only lost my Oct gains but lost my capital too.

Nov 10 - New week and trying to recover my lost capital and and Oct profit.
- Shorted 1k TSN 6.40, covered at 6.26, 6 mins scalp for $140
- Shorted 300 AAPL 95.08, covered at 95.35 for a loss of $80 in 16 mins (too long in the trade, thank god the loss was only $80).

Nov 11 - Lot of trades today. Good and bad, here goes

- Shorted 100 COF at 31.47, covered at 31.90 for a loss of $50 in 18 mins (too long in the position)
- Shorted 100 GS at 72, covered at 71.71 for a measly $30 in 11 min. Now this was an awesome short entry coz in the am session the hod was 72.85 and it retreated to 66.68. I was kicking my self for getting out but that's trading.
- Shorted 1 k CIT at 3.85, put a stop loss in at 3.93 and what da 'ya know, it stopped me and then it fell back to my entry. But I was not really focusing on this coz since I had my stop in I was focusing my attention on GS again.
- Shorted 500 GS 69.38, covered at 69.13 for a $175 in 1 min.
- Sometimes it does pay to be patient coz after I covered in my previous trade at $69.13, shorted 500 GS again at 68.54, covered at 68.93 for a loss of $200. The lesson I learnt here is DON'T CHASE. That is exactly what I did, I tried to jump in again too soon instead of waiting for the right entry.
- Shorted 1k 68.05, covered at 67.64 $400 in 21 seconds, got out too soon coz it just drooped fast and furiously all the down to low $67, left about $650 on the table
-Now this is when I should have called it a day but didn't. I really have to get disciplined. Shorted 300 COF at 32.06, covered at 32.61 for a loss of $165 10 mins in the position, too long.
- Did my FIRST BUY today, wish it was a positive story but unfortunately it was not to be. Bought 300 RIMM 47.20, sold (not covered) at 46.69, for a loss of 165. The market had such wild swings and if you picked the wrong side boy oh boy was it bad.
- Shorted 1k AAPL at 96.05, covered at 95.87, $180 in 6 mins. Now this was a great entry too and got GREEDY, coz it dropped at low as 95.43 and I didn't get out, instead I got out when the squeeze came in, albeit it was a profit.
- Last trade, shorted 500 AAPL 95.06, covered at 94.58 for a $240 in 4 mins.
Ended being up about 385 for the day. I missed some great opportunities coz my brokerage, tda, did not have LVS and SKF to short. SKF was an amzing drop from 160 to 150 in the span of 50mins. SKF had a nice head and shoulders pattern too.
So Iam still trying to recover my capital, then October's profit, lets see how it goes. Wow this is a long winded post, should try to detail more frequently.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Oct 31, Nov 3 & 4

Oct 31st - You know those days when what ever you pick is the wrong pick, that's what Oct 31st felt like. Did one bad short on 200 CMI at 26.50 covered at 26.91 for $100 odd loss within 10 mins (broke my rule, if it doesn't quickly go in you favor get out).

Anxious to make up my loss made another bad short on 1k shares of CI at 12.81 covered 5 mins later at 12.90 for another loss of about $100. Not good, not good at all. I should have stepped back and looked at my blunders but of course I didn't.

Next came the afternoon close, shorted 1k shares of XL at 9.35 covered at 9.53 for a loss again, again that took 10 mins, waaaay too long. Finally shorted 1k CI again at 16.02 covered for a loss at 16.20 (avg) and again that took 12 mins.

So ended up giving up about $600 on Oct 31, what a day. It was two weeks to the day since I stared trading and I was up about 1k and in trying to be greedy and end the month on high(er) note, ended up screwing it up.

Stick to the plan. My objective is 1-2% per month and I was comfortable there and I go and give up $600 in one day. So in the end my Oct ended with me being up 1.24%

Nov 3 - Did just one short trade of 100 shares on SPG at 63 for a quick scalp of of $60 in 2 mins and got out. That was it for Nov 3 and actually that was a good trade coz the lod was somewhere close to where I got out and the stock just started to go up after that.

Nov 4 - Another disastrous day. First trade tried to short LVS and of course tda did not have shares to short, however it did not move in the direction I thought it would, even thought it did later on in the day. I honestly feel LVS will drop further, coz if you think about it logically people don't have money to for basic necessities why on earth would they the likes of LVS be making money and this goes for MGM too. I will look to short this probably for a swing trade, lets see.

Now for the loosing trades. Shorted 300 HIG at 16.92 covered a loss of $100, and then shorted 300 AMT at 32.57 and covered for a loss of $150 something.

So what are the common denominators in all mentioned above

1) still just shorting

2) market has been moving up

3) hanging around too long in a position when it doesn't go in my favour

4) this is a unique one, let me try to explain. So this is my personal observation from trading earlier on in the year as well and is true even today, may be someone else can validate too. Here goes, I watch the time and sales very very closely on the stock I am preparing to enter. Now, what I have observed is when a stock is trending down and then there is greens coming thru in the time and sales, squeezing the shorts and confusing the heck out of those intending to short the stock, this is the best time to jump in short. I know this sounds crazy but its true, however watch the 10 day sma too closely on a 5 min chart.

So my November not off to a great start my I am trying to remain optimistic and hopefully make some money going loooong

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Oct 29 & 30

Oct 29 - I actually did not trade on the 29th, not because I couldn't but two reasons

1) I was not comfortable in anything that I could get into, given the short period of time that I have to trade

2) Wanted to see if I could sit and actually restrain myself from making a trade.

It felt good, coz I was able to do it

Oct 30 - Did two trades SYMC at $13.35 for a quick 7 min scalp of $235 but left about 1k on the table but I seem to be able to accept that hmmm, oh well. Finally another quick scalp on AMP for $70 in 5 mins. I was content at least I was in the green. There was an excellent opportunity on HIG that I missed out on coz tda did not have borrows, missed about 1k on that. Tks nocents for letting me know about the borrows being available in ib, can't wait to get that account opened.

However I still have to make money going long. I am not comfortable at all taking long positions and I want to change that but don't know how. I get very nervous when I am even looking at taking a long position. Hopefully one of these days I'll be able to change that.

Tomorrow will be two weeks since I have gotten back into the trading. I want to do an assessment on how I have done as at the end of October. As I have stated in my profile, my objective is 1-2% per month and I am content, after all I only very limited time to trade.
Lets see what Halloween has in store for us traders.........

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Oct 27 & 28 - 3 good 1 bad

Oct 27 - Markets were all over the place but was trying to focus on the watch list and all the great picks from Muddy, Market kid, Investorslive and all others.
Had two beautiful short picks HUM at $33.51 and RIGL at $9.68. Hum was a position I held for 3 mins and got out for a quick scalp and RIGL was one hour before close and it was a GOTS call and that was a 1 minute position. I love these (when they are right). Of course had I held on woulda/coulda/shoulda made an easy 1k for the day, however I was content to be in the green at the end of the day.

Oct 28 - Another great day for shorts in the morning sessions, even though the DOW opened up 200+ points and ended up closing 900+. DRYS was the short play this time, held it for 8 mins and got out for a quick $175 bucks and again woulda/coulda/shoulda held on, coz I left about 500+ on the table. I was still content. Now comes the bad move, so into the last hour and markets up 600+ points and here I am looking for a short, and I am looking at FITB and it was at a hod of $10.15.
So I watch it for like 10-15 mins and I am thinking this thing is just not taking out the hod and I see a fake drop from $10 to $9.93. I jump in at $10.90 and what da ya know, it pops back up. So now I am down about $50 and thinking 'c'mon, c'mon drop a bit and give me chance to get out', but it does not. All I could think of was I was up in the morning and here I am trying to give it back.
Well I did give it back and another $20, so ended up being down for the day. And the lesson learnt is,
1) when you get into a position and if it does not go in your favour quickly, get out. Listen to that inside voice and don't depend on 'hope'.
2) when you are up for the day, take only positions that are more than likely.
3) try not to go against the market trend (unless its obvious)
4) take smaller positions if you are already up for the day.

I don't regret taking the positions in FITB but what I do regret is not listening to that inner voice.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Oct 23 & 24 - 3 up 3 down

Oct 23 - So BRCM opened up and contd to go above 15 so I covererd at $15.15 loss of $300 (just a note my position on BRCM was taken on 22/Oct not 23/Oct, at least thats what my account says). So now I am upset, coz I waited 3 days to make my CIT work for me, made a profit walked away left quite a bit on the table and here I am down on a silly BRCM trade. (Reminder to self - take losses quick, coz had I held onto BRCM till Oct 24, I would have been down more coz it went up to $16 something)



There is a positive side to this, tks to GOTS and slots call on DDR I did a quick 1k short position and within 6 min in and out to bring me into the green on Oct 23. I was now smiling coz I not only recovered my $300 loss but made I think another $300. That was it for Oct 23



Oct 24 - Did another silly short trade on BSX, well it was not really silly coz I was in the green about $70, instead of taking that and being happy, I just hung on hoping it will break the support it had come to several times before (probably coz CIT went fruther down after I got out earlier that week). Well as you'd probably guessed, it went back up and I got out for a loss of $160. One other thing to remember, my profits and losses do not include my commissions.



So I was pretty upset, again BSX was not a GOTS call, don't know why on earth I play these. But a positive end here again and again it was DDR to the rescue, shorted 500 shares at $10.75 and got out quick at $10.25, within 9 mins, to bring me back to the green. So I decided that was it for the day, I was up about $60 for the day and I wanted to end it that way.



I don't have too much time to trade so I figured if I can end in positive, even though its small, I'll assess it at the end of the month. The way I see it is, if bank pays lets say 5% p.a. ($0.42%/ month)on a fixed deposit, if I can 1-2% per month on my part time trading, I would be content.



That's my update so far, lets see how the next week goes.



Cheers

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Oct 23 - Why oh Why did I take a BRCM position ?

So covered my first swing trade position of CIT at 4 today, that was my target, shorted it at 4.60 on Oct 17, left about $170 on the table but can never pick a bottom. The reason I got out was coz I saw a support at that level.

That was the plus point for the day, now comes the stuff you probably are more interested in reading. Since the market open I had been wanting to short BRCM when it continued to rise, don't ask me why, I always seem to want to pick the wrong side of the obvious trend. However resisted my tempatation and took my son to the pumkin patch. Came back about half and before close and sucummbed to my irrational urge and shorted 500 BRCM at 14.53 and to make matters worse that was about $0.08 off the low of the day.

You can guess what happened next, it started to rise $14.63, $14.71, back down to $14.58 and then market closed with me still in the positions, it traded after hours at $14.89. I wanted to kick myself. I was now looking to exit with a loss but decided against it.

When I went to do some research on the stock, the company had been upgraded, earnings were better then expected and the forecast was also better than expected and I go and short it just above the low of the day. Right now I am sweating, trying not to get emotional but at the same time asking myself "why".

I was looking for quick buck and basically gave into my urge to do a trade. Should never have taken that position. I am anxious about tomorrow's open. Had a look at the charts and this stock has a $1.50-$2.00, so I am not sure what to expect tomorrow morning. I probably will get out if it starts to climb and take the loss.

Shall keep you posted what happened....